Op-ed: How Trump Can Threaten the Republican Party for Support in 2024
By Duke Reeder
With the midterms in the rearview and Trump announcing his candidacy for President, the 2024 presidential election is becoming clearer for Republicans. It is looking like it will be a two-horse race between former President Donald Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis for the GOP bid. For the Democrats, it is unclear whether or not Joe Biden will run again, but that might not even matter…
The midterm elections this month revealed two things — the “Republican Party of Trump” is weaker than ever, and support for Governor Ron DeSantis is incredibly strong.
According to Politico, Trump-endorsed candidates went 10–10 in congressional and senatorial elections earlier this month, vastly underperforming expectations (Trump-endorsed Herschel Walker’s senate race is going to a runoff and is not counted in this figure). The red wave many Republicans predicted never came, and Trump-endorsed candidates critically lost nearly all-important “toss-up” elections — these candidates finished with a measly record of 1–5.
Republican voters largely rejected the pro-Trump, election-denying rhetoric earlier this month, signaling that it may be time for the GOP to shift their support away from Trump and to a new candidate for 2024. This candidate is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
DeSantis achieved an overwhelming and unprecedented victory in Florida’s gubernatorial race as he became the first Republican gubernatorial candidate to win Miami-Dade County since 2002. He did so by gaining a staggering 16.3 points in the county over the span of just four years. That level of improvement is unprecedented and shows that DeSantis’ strategy in Florida is working, and will likely work throughout most of the country.
However, in the end, the midterms were a general disappointment for the Republicans. They were unable to secure control of the Senate and only recaptured the house by a much smaller margin than expected. Ron DeSantis’ resounding success was one of the few highlights of the election for the party, and it signals where the GOP will likely shift its aims for the 2024 election as DeSantis’ national support will only continue to grow.
A further reason for the GOP’s support for DeSantis, according to Politico, is that Trump is likely to be indicted by the DOJ for willful retention of classified materials at Mar-a-Lago. A formal indictment would most certainly lead to the downfall of any Trump presidential campaign. The majority of Republican voters still support Trump over DeSantis, but with so much extra “baggage” and controversy surrounding Trump, coupled with growing support for the Florida Governor it makes the most sense for GOP leadership to back a fresh new face in DeSantis.
Yet, while the Republicans may want to move on from being the party of Trump, Trump himself might not be ready to move on. This is where things can get tricky for the GOP. Trump is not someone who will accept defeat, and he announced his candidacy with the intention of winning the Republican primary and the presidential election. Considering Trump’s past record, he will do almost anything to achieve this goal.
Trump is certainly not naive to the Republican foe he faces in DeSantis. Many experts believe Trump announced his campaign shortly following the midterms to try and divert focus from DeSantis’ overwhelming victory in Florida and back to himself. Trump will need to pull out all the strategies to garner support.
Now, what will likely happen is Trump will offer DeSantis the Vice Presidency. This ticket would be unstoppable in the 2024 election given Biden’s tenure, and win by a wide margin. However, DeSantis will turn this offer down. It makes little sense for DeSantis to become associated with someone as politically toxic and controversial as Trump at the beginning of a very promising political career. Especially considering DeSantis has a legitimate chance of beating Trump in a GOP primary. All factors suggest that DeSantis would turn down this offer and run separately from Trump on his own.
As aforementioned, the Republican party would offer more support for DeSantis than Trump. This would put Trump in a tough spot, and he might choose to employ a nuclear strategy to try and regain support from Republicans.
Out of total spite, Trump can threaten to run as an independent candidate in the 2024 election if support isn’t shifted from DeSantis to him. This would be catastrophic for Republicans as it would siphon millions of votes from the Republican nominee in DeSantis, and lead to an easy victory for the Democrats, regardless of who that candidate is. This is certainly a nuclear option for Trump, but given his past actions to try and retain power, it wouldn’t be all that surprising.
Even though Trump’s support from Americans and the GOP is waning, he still holds a great deal of power and influence over the upcoming election. The situation could get very tricky for the Republicans if they don’t handle it correctly, and they must tread carefully with Trump moving forward. They need to be proactive in their moves and decisions to avoid a catastrophic blow-up and splitting of the party.
Tags: Ron DeSantis, Donald Trump, 2024 Election, Republican Party, GOP